‘Tourism Industry Won’t Recover Until June 2021’
“Assuming a bell curve and the emergence of the first confirmed case in NY on March 1, this would indicate that the approximate end date for new cases could be June 30.
“In addition, it is reasonable to assume that these governments will err on the side of caution and by extension, I do not presume that the State Department will lift the Level 4 travel advisory until at least a month after the last reported case.
“It is also reasonable to assume that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will likely not give an all-clear until a protracted period of no new cases in all 50 states and Washington DC. This is a reason for great concern for the Caribbean as perceived home safety will likely be attained by the prospective traveler between June and August 1.”
Perception of healthcare in third world countries will be the second factor indicating when tourism will rebound, something he projects will the Caribbean will start benefiting from by November 1.
The third factor will be people’s travel intent, something influenced by finances, availability of flights, promotion of staycations, the season and prices offered, he said.
“Tourism is perceived as a luxury good. In times of uncertainty, luxury spending is often shelved because consumption is generally replaced by savings,” he said.
“It is also likely that all routes will not immediately receive critical mass to fly profitably to all destinations. This is a threat to Caribbean nations who depend on air and sea travel for visitors. Many countries will likely promote staycations as a safer, more patriotic alternative to international vacations.
“Fourthly, if the winter is harsh, it may just serve as a motivator for the bird tourist to fly south for winter, especially if there are great deals. Research conducted after 9/11 showed that 64 percent of individuals who expressed a fear of flying, responded that they were willing to purchase extremely discounted tickets.”
By RASHAD ROLLE
The Tribune
April 20, 2020
